Outcome Over Output
Why Clarity of Aim Beats Chasing Metrics
In today’s data-heavy world, it’s easy to get fixated on measurable outputs.
Whether it’s a health stat like HRV or performance data from force plates, our ability to track, quantify, and optimize has never been better. But that also means we’re more prone than ever to obsess over numbers—often at the expense of the bigger picture.
These metrics can be helpful—but only if we stay grounded in what we’re actually trying to do.
Recently, I met someone whose HRV averaged between 198–206. His coaches were thrilled. But he felt like crap.
That’s the problem: if you only look at the number, everything looks fine. But we don’t live our lives through data—we live through felt experience.
This is where the distinction between Measures of Performance (MOPs) and Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) really matters.
MOPs are outputs—what happened. MOEs are outcomes—did it matter?
If your goal is sustained performance and health, then every performance metric should reflect movement toward (or away from) that goal.
Enter Goodhart’s Law:
“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.”
A classic example: companies that track call center efficiency based on “calls handled per hour.” What happens? Agents rush calls, customer satisfaction plummets, and the original goal gets lost in the metric.
The same thing happens in health and performance. On a recent podcast, I explained how I saw clear examples of this during my time coaching CrossFit.
I noted that one of the great benefits of the CrossFit model is public accountability for effort. Posting scores for the Workout of the Day lets everybody in the community know what you did that day. If you train with the same people on a regular basis for a long time, they’ll know if you’re putting forth your best effort, and the community will hold you to account. That can be helpful to maintain the type of consistency that leads to progress.
However, one potentially insidious downside to constantly scoring training sessions is that people start to focus on these training sessions in and of themselves while losing sight of the big picture. For most, joining a CrossFit gym is about living a healthier lifestyle. If you’re a forty-year-old father of three blowing your back out to get ten more pounds on your deadlift, it’s not only painful—it actually detracts from the entire point of fitness training: to more fully enjoy your life.
If the number becomes the goal, we forget why we were tracking it in the first place.
So don’t get hypnotized by outputs. Stay focused on outcomes.
Clarify Before You Act
I often get questions like:
“Hey Rob, what do you think about ______?”
My first response is usually:
“What are you trying to accomplish?”
That might sound cagey, but it’s actually a necessary step toward clarity. Simplistic, one-size-fits-all answers might feel satisfying—but they rarely lead to meaningful change.
In Check Engine Light classes, we talk about the importance of bringing clarity to a problem before deploying tools or tracking metrics. You can always refine your goal later—but if you don’t define it upfront, you’re just doing “stuff and things.”
And that need for clarity applies across all levels.
Just this morning, someone asked me what I thought about using wrist straps for barbell work. My response? It depends—what’s your aim?
If you’re trying to build a strong back and your grip is the limiter, using straps might make sense to keep the load where you want it. But if you’re trying to strengthen your grip? Then straps would work against your actual goal.
See the pattern? Know what you’re after—then shape your approach accordingly.
It’s complex, yes. But not complicated.
Know your desired outcome. Aim accordingly.
It’s Everywhere
One example that shows up is in the pursuit of physique as an outcome in and of itself. Before anybody gets their s(medium) shirt all twisted, please know that I’m fully aware we all want to look good naked.
However, physique is often a proxy for capacity. The common joking phrase “show muscles versus go muscles” is a silly way of saying training to look like an athlete and being athletic are not the same thing.
Being athletic means far more than muscularity. It means coordination, rhythm, and timing. It means solving novel problems in a changing environment with adaptable movement strategies.
I’m not here to shit on people who do physique training—at all. But know what your goal really is. If it’s to look a certain way, then bodybuilding and physique training make sense. If it’s to be able to move well, then you’d better do things that point you in that direction. Personally, I don’t care which one you do. Just make sure you’re clear about your target.
Metric-chasing fallacies show up everywhere too. Whether it’s chasing a certain heart rate variability, resting heart rate, VO₂ max, sleep score, or number of workouts per week—be sure the metrics are relevant and meaningful to the larger outcome.
In other words:
Make sure your metrics matter.
Bring It Back to What Matters
Metrics are tools, not trophies. They should help guide your actions—not define your worth, your progress, or your purpose.
When we confuse outputs for outcomes, we risk optimizing for the wrong things. More reps, higher HRV, better scores—they’re not bad. But they’re only meaningful if they move you closer to what you actually value.
So before you chase another number, ask a better question:
“What is this for?”
Then aim with intent.
Track what matters.
Adjust when needed.
And remember: the best metrics are the ones that keep you honest about the life you're actually trying to live.
Thanks for reading,
Rob
Check out this amazing review for my book Check Engine Light (Out June 17!)
“In the relentless drive of high performance, it’s easy to overlook the warning signs until something breaks. Slowing down requires courage, especially when pushing through is second nature. As a client of Rob’s, I’ve experienced firsthand how his straightforward approach helps you recognize those critical moments. Check Engine Light is your guide to staying in the fight—and staying whole while doing it.”
– Britt Slabinski, Medal of Honor Recipient & Former Command Master Chief, USN
👏🏻 👏🏻 👏🏻